Posted: 08 Oct, 2016
Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers’ (CAPP) report offered a 15-year outlook for total Canadian crude oil production and Western Canadian crude oil supply. Average spot prices for WTI crude oil was US$91 per barrel in 2014, and has declined by 50%. CAPP forecasts additional Canadian crude oil production growth of 1.1 MMbpd by 2030. Over 1.5 MMbpd of additional crude oil supplies must be transported to markets. Sever pipeline projects are under consideration to serve new and traditional markets, all face challenges and delays. Tim McMillan, CAPP president and CEO noted Canada’s pipeline network has the capacity to move about 4 MMbpd, around the 2015 average supply of 3.981 MMbpd. Over 850,000 additional bpd of oil sands supply will be available by 2021.
The 2021-2030 supply from Canada’s oil sands is forecast to grow by over 700,000 bpd. More transportation infrastructure will be needed as Canada’s oil supply will soon exceed its present transportation capacity. CAPP the total volume of Canadian oil, before imported diluent is added, will increase 28% over the next 15 years, growing to 4.9 MMbpd by 2030. This is 400,000 bpd lower in 2030 compared to the 2015 forecast. Supply, the total volume after imported diluent is added to production, is expected to rise 37% over the next 15 years, growing to 5.5 MMbpd by 2030. Due to the increase in total volume, all forms of transportation in all directions are needed to get Canadian oil to new and existing markets.